In 2022, the Argentine markets achieved a remarkable record: the S&P Merval became the second largest annual dollar stock index in the world, surpassed only by the Turkish BIST (+80% in hard currency).
The leading panel of BYMA rose 142% in pesos and 42% measured in CCL dollars. But there is an even more surprising record: since the beginning of last July, that is, in the last six and a half months, Mervaleta accumulates a rise of 123% in currencies.
With the strong acceleration of prices in the first three weeks of 2023, the leading panel of Argentine Stock Exchanges and Markets (BYMA) remained in positive territory, growing 22.6% in local currency and 16.8% in local currency.
The strong rebound, which included 10 consecutive wins last time, it was interrupted this week by predictable massive profit-taking that sent local stocks fell almost a 10%, which raised some concerns among investors about the future, except for a strong recovery seen last Friday.
In this context, Ámbito contacted experts who recounted in images what happened to the Argentine newspapers in recent weeks and revealed their opinions on the entry dynamics, wait or exit from the local market.
Argentine stock market record: short-term caution
Walter Morales, president of Wise Capital, said that the “buyers” They distrusted the profits. “Domestic equities are seeing great returns and this is an opportunity to profit,” said one expert.
“The drop in the middle of the week is also linked to the announcements by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massas, of a debt buyback for 1,000 million dollars,” Morales added.
Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of SBS Group, also indicated that, after a strong recovery in Argentine bonds in 2022, followed by a strengthening in 2023, the appreciation of the shares may be limited in the short term.
For its part, Pablo Repetto, head of the Aurum Valores survey, added a fundamental aspect linked to the international context.
“A global recession that affects risk assets can generate important short-term adjustments, deepening the surprises that can arise in a year of national elections,” he commented.
Argentine stock market: optimism in the long term
Given a much longer time horizon, experts are very optimistic about the future course of the S&P Merval.
“We recommend waiting outside, if you do not have Argentine stocks, and analyze whether the upward trajectory begins to restart at lower values,” said the Wise Capital analyst.
However, Franco pointed out that, based on fundamental analysis, many companies have cleaned up their balance sheets in recent years to improve their turnover.
“We believe that Argentine companies represent an attractive medium-term opportunity for risk-averse profiles,” he said, opening the door to long-term investors such as YPF or Transportadora de Gas del Sur in this type of functions,” he mentioned.
For its part, Repetto maintained its preference for buying shares in the energy sector, mainly in companies related to the development of Dead cow, due to the opportunity that arose after a readjustment of the geopolitical situation.
“The Argentine stock market remains cheap and there are many stocks with good appreciation potential in the medium and long term,” concludes Aurum Valores.