In the middle of the round, while the MEP dollar had no obstacles, reached a $360 price, but finally a very large order to buy shares in an attempt to lower them closed at $352.21, well below the previous price.
As if it were not enough that the government repurchased securities denominated in dollars, resorted to increasing the rate of 1 day repurchase, causing confusion in the market since this measure benefited investment funds, but harmed banks.
That number increased by 30 points in 2 weeks. As for features, it is now in the 95 percent of the financial institution's passive approval rating.
“This is a very important increase for investment funds because it attracts new investors and is a headache for banks. As there may be a decrease in deposits from savings accounts to move to money market funds. The problem is that the banks pay the 8% of total income and are at a disadvantage in fund fees,” said financial analyst and agribusiness expert Salvador Vitelli..
The truth is that the market has become a roller coaster. Sometimes, the representative dollar falls when the traded currency falls, causing the "exchange rate" becomes negative. In other words, it was more expensive to have dollars in Argentine accounts than to send them abroad in cash to the time of liquidation.
The price distortions between the two dollars, which reached a difference of 10 dollars depending on the subtitle with which they were negotiated, allowed all types of arbitrage so that traders took advantage of the difference in the exchange rate.
The conference was chaotic as there were no firm signals from the central bank. In the middle of the wheel, when the MPE found no obstacles, listed at $360, but in the end a very large subtitle buyback order appeared, with the intention of taking them down, which caused will close at 352.21, a price of 36 cents less than Friday.
Liquidated cash rounded to $2.21 (+0.6%) to $363.19. “It is very difficult to trade like this,” admits one trader.
The “blue” dollar It is also volatile. Down to $ 335, went up to $ 337 and closed at the same price as Friday, $ 336. In the futures market, central bank interventions declined sharply at different ends of the month.
This implies that the market does not see devaluation and will try to go as far as possible.
Andrés Reschini's daily report indicates that the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year, the first month of the new government's mandate, reflects a devaluation of the 9% compared to November.
In the wholesale market, the dollar appreciated 93 cents to US$ 184.38, bringing the depreciation rate to 5.3% monthly.
Once again, the central bank had to sell dollars. The production was $ 56 million, which caused a drop in $ 48 million in reserves. Reserves fell $ 1,931 million so far in January.
The balance of purchase and sale of dollars in the market is carried out by the BCRA.
The opportunities ahead are challenging. “The Rosario Stock Exchange estimates that the drop in soybean exports this year will be US$ 4.5 billion, 20% less than last season. We are in the middle of a campaign that has the lowest sales rate in 21 years. What is negotiable and viable is minimal, because the producer does not want to commit when the physical goods are not yet available. We also lost corn and could lose $14 billion in farm income. The rains at the end of the week will not affect the decline in the harvest,” said Vitelli.
For financial analyst Salvador Di Stefano: “At one point, the government tried to sell dollars to maintain prices and raise interest rates. Masa does the same, but with other tools: instead of dollars, he buys bonds and raises the price. This strategy is not going to work for Macri and it is not going to work for everyone because what he is doing is delaying the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the subtitles without a huge amount of money to reverse the course of the trend. . My impression is that the bond market will become saturated, demand for dollars will exceed supply, and prices will skyrocket. The “blue” dollar is at $376, they cannot hold it indefinitely. As a result, economic activity will decrease. “
The debt securities they intensified a 1.9% due to Central's buybacks. Thus, the country risk was reduced by 33 units (-1.8%) until the 1,843 basis points.
The bag had a good opening and the rally took on expressive proportions in the center of the wheel.
Thus, the process of taking profits began, especially in banks affected by the increase in repurchase interest rates, and the index S&P Merval of the main values closed with an increase of 1.08% in pesos and 0.5% in dollars. The traded volume was similar to that of Friday, in US$6,832 million.
The ADRs - shares listed in the New York Stock Exchange– were negotiated in US$ 6,595 million and showed a positive evolution, but without significant increase Globant (+3.8%) and Telecom (+3.3%) They were the best.
The business climate is changing and every wheel is unpredictable. The stock market reacted in the last 2 rounds, but not as expected.
The subtitles, despite the rescues of the central bank, are in doubt because dollars are scarce to keep them at that level.
The dollar understands to rise, but in the end the central bank is responsible for crushing them. The market continues to bet on the currency knowing that this plan has a limit.