He Bank of Spain estimates that the “Young people” can deduct up to 25% of our GDP due to the shortage of qualified employees.
Including due to the tight commodity market. He points out, however, that this European support can have an impact directly on the level of GDP five years earlier, a sock of 1.15 % annually; this ratio can reach 1.75% If we take into account the “spillover effects” between sectors.
However, he estimates that the exponential impact on the economic growth of our country will only happen when the resources are applied in full.
In an article titled “The recovery, transformation and resilience plan and its macroeconomic implications from a sectoral perspective”, the regulator describes that the existence of rigidities in the products and work can limit the necessary reallocation of resources between companies and sectors and, therefore, thus significantly reducing the aggregate impact3.
For example, a shortage of qualified employees in a given sector can reduce The impact is estimated at around 25%, from 1,75% to 1.3% of GDP on an annual average.
The monetary authority indicates that the estimated effects are “heterogeneous” between the sectors of activity, which will benefit from funds from the EUROPEAN UNION, mainly in sectors related to the digitalization process (information and communication or professional and technical services), as well as in the construction industry -especially railways- due to investments in infrastructure related to the ecological transition process.
“In any case, the projected impact will depend on the assumption of total availability and mobility of resources between sectors,” says the Bank of Spain in a statement.
The most profitable industry
In effect, the BdE highlights, in terms of direct impact, that only a few sectors are “significantly” benefit of the reinforcement of the recovery plan resources, among which stand out the Information services, professional and educational, given the plan's commitment to digital transformation and modernizing the economy, as well as the construction industry as it plays a key role in some elements of the rehabilitation plan, including everything related to rehabilitation energy of buildings and rooms.
The BoE emphasizes the indirect effects of customer-supplier relationships.
However, the organization he presides Pablo Hernandez de Cos estimates that, once the indirect effects through the rcustomer-supplier relations, most sectors see their levels of gross value added “significantly”.
It focuses especially on sectors such as professional services andadministrative activities that most benefit this channel due to the “positive impact” derived from the expansion of the information and communication sector.
For other manufacturing, such as manufacturing or construction, the The main cause of these domino effects is the increase of productivity in the transportation sector.
The problem of skilled labor
However, the Bank of Spain warns that the existence of "rigidity" in the product and labor markets can limit or demand the reallocation of resources between companies and sectors and, therefore, “significantly reduce the global impact”.
Services, commerce and leisure among the most affected sectors
For example, the shortage of skilled workers in a given sector can reduce the estimated impact by around a 25 %, from 1.75 % to 1.3 % of GDP on an annual average.
The document confirms the conclusion that there is a conflict in the resource allocation process between sectors. This effect can be reduced by up to a third.
And, he adds, sectors such as those most linked to tourism (hospitality, commerce or leisure) they will be seen less directly favored by these funds9.
Lastly, the Bank of Spain points out that the figures presented in this article do not allow us to quantify the impact of the structural reforms planned in the recovery plan, but points out that his role is "fundamental" given the conditionality of the disbursement of funds for the conclusion of this reform program and set milestones.
“This volume is important for the Bank of Spain,” he stressed.