The movement of Sergio Massas to find currency gaps and avoid a economic recovery of the dollar is being analyzed by investors.
After the immediate reaction, parallel to a slight fall in the dollar and a strong rise in bonds, the Argentine goddess falls this Thursday, despite the promise of a “buyback” that could skyrocket prices.
In the midst of a negative day for the world markets, the Argentine subtitles fell on Thursday and the country risk, which managed to exceed the 1,800 points after the announcement, went back up to 1,864 units. The Bonar 2029, one of the most negotiated a year ago, a 4% fell.
At the same time, the Merval index, which ended its positive streak on Wednesday amid profit-taking in global stock markets, continued to fall. The main index of the Buenos Aires stock market fell 4.6% after midday. Like Aluar, some shares fell 4.7% in the local market.
Argentine assets seem to have survived the summer. Doubts persist among investors about the justification of the government's decision and the related costs. “The main discussion about these measures has focused on themselves and the financing of these operations is done with reserves or with SDRs and some remaining loans from international organizations.”Cohen said.
Another point that raised suspicions was the high volume of transactions in shorter-term global bonds before the announcement. “It seems that the message recorded en masse did not surprise the market so much and we suspect some leak of this initiative, which generated demand for these titles”, explains an operator in a strict sense.
With this purchase of dollar-denominated bonds, Massa manages to cover something that market analysts have been observing for weeks: the persistent official intervention in the bond market to prevent financial prices from skyrocketing.
If the dollar transaction volume of Global 2030 is good, the subheadings used to convert to dollars have been liquid and the MEP has reached an all-time high since January of last year, just before the announcement, it certainly is where it has grown in recent weeks.
The intervention in this market now “washed” causes an “artificial” fall of quoted prices. “To a certain extent, the exit of some investors was subsidized and they were able to get dollars out of the country cheaper”said another operator.
Pablo Repetto, from Aurum Valores, explained: The problem is that it is obvious that what is being done is not to maintain the exchange rates, but rather that the subtitles are bought with dollars and sold with pesos, with which the number of subtitles in the market The market remains practically the same and, incidentally, the BCRA “It is falling with less inventory.”
For Repetto, despite the vague definitions given by the government that guarantee that the repurchased funds will not affect the plant's shares, “the mimada does not collect dollars, so it can only borrow in pesos (one way is to sell bonds for pesos, for example), so buy dollars from the BCRA and use those dollars to buy bonds”.
Going forward, one wonders how it will be able to keep up with rising debt despite the massive intention to support prices. In reports sent to clients, Delphos, a consultancy, warned that while the stock rally was supported by external factors, there was also a “speculative element”.
The current prices already match comparable subtitles and are fundamentally justified. The 'speculative' part of the rally is coming to an end and is therefore moving towards an asset associated with the 'carry'. Thus, for those who still decide, in a favorable global context, to remain exposed to Argentine risk, it would be preferable to maintain positions in bonds. higher coupon, such as GD35, GD38 and GD41.