Ok (VALE3) marked its third consecutive low session this Tuesday (31).
The move follows a sharp drop in oil prices. chinese iron ore, with the reference price in the dalian bag falling from the previous session's contract high, as the market assessed the demand in the Asian country.
However, steel commodities are closing at monthly highs, thanks to recent gains shaped by the renewed outlook for the merchants that the economy China he will get over after the end of the zero Covid policy.
Unlike OK (VALE3) which fell 0.49%, the actions of companies in the mining and metallurgical sector continue. CSN Mining (CMIN3) rose 3.49%, continuing the upward trajectory of the previous session.
But why has the valley taken a different step than the sector in recent days?
fair price
In the last closing, which had a very similar dynamic to Tuesday's day (fall in the valley and other mining and steel companies ended the day at highs), Idean Alves, partner and head of negotiation for the Brazilian activity, evaluated the movement in the valley as reparation.
Vale shares recovered well along with iron ore prices, going from BRL 60 in September 2022 to the current level of BRL 94-95.
For Inter Research, the price is considered reasonable and not should increase too much.
House takes a cautious stance in relation to the valley. In fact, the movement of recovery of the Chinese economy expresses uncertainty about the pace of country recovery.
Gabriela Joubert, chief analyst of Inter, explains that the optimism generated by the market in relation to the reopening process of the second largest economy in the world and the seasonal storage before the Lunar New Year contributed to the rise in prices. of iron ore.
So as China returns from an extended Lunar New Year holiday, February will be a month "extremely important" to understand or forecast what Chinese demand will be like for the rest of the year, adds Joubert.
“We need more conclusive data to confirm that this process will take the direction that everyone expects,” defends the analyst.
Inter still has a “neutral” recommendation for him Ok (VALE3) With Goldman Sachs, which also cites still great uncertainties about the Chinese market recovery.
As to Goldman Sachs, investors are likely to be disappointed by the extent of the recovery in the demand in China after Chinese New Year.
The negative feeling reached the second quarter of 2023, when the market situation national real estate continued to deteriorate.
The analysts of Goldman Sachs They are structured to be more favorable to crude oil than to iron ore.
What do optimists say?
There are those who believe that the strong recovery of the mining and steel sectors will not accelerate. This is the case of Investimentos Guide.
The Chinese government's signal to end its zero coronavirus policy stands out from the restrictions still in place, according to the analyst Matthaus Haag.
“We know that once this crisis is resolved, we will see a return to normal business in China,” he said.
For Haag, the valley's actions have appreciation potential and should be “sustainable” in the long term.
“It is possible that the company will suffer a few quarters in the future, due to the drop in the price of minerals. However, Vale is one of the lowest cash cost miners in the world and its product is very important today,” he explains.
Vale is one of the favorites in the mining industry.
Vale published today his production report and sales of the fourth quarter of 2022 after the market closure.
The sales volume in this period fell both in the quarterly comparison like in the accumulated result of the year.
This year's production was 307.8 million tons, Under forecast of 310 million of tons of steel components in 2022.