2023 offers optimism for global investments given the slowdown in high interest rates Federal Reserve.
At the beginning of February, the US central bank raised the interest rates at 25 basis points, after the “monetary crisis” further aggressive in 40 years.
This went well received by the market, which not only I expected this to happen, but he believed that the levels would be below what is stipulated by the Fed.
But this is not the only good news: US inflation continues to show signs of convergence, accumulating three consecutive months of deceleration.
The main world power will publish its price index january consumer this week, and analysts predict that the core inflation will fall to 5.5% Over the previous year.
If validated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not have sufficient reasons to keep rates above the 5% for the rest of the year, since, historically, cycles of strong price increases have softened when they reached the long-term inflation (core inflation).
As a result, risk assets and US stocks have progressed to recover especially.
Argentines can also benefit from this new situation, how foreign companies can invest in the country through Argentine Certificates of Deposit (CEDEAR).
These subtitles allow the public to buy shares quoted in Wall Street in exchange for pesos.
And it is one of the favorite options in the even portfolio.to preserve capital and protect itself from fluctuations of the exchange rate due to the appreciation of the Financial Settlement Dollar (CCL).
CEDEAR: Why are they a good investment option?
Mauro Mazza, boss Bull Markets research, told iProUP that the recovery of the NYSE was linked to the interest rates for a simple reason.
“It represents the price at which a flow is discounted to arrive at the present value of the assets that make up the flow. As it increases, lower prices occur. “This Fed easing should significantly ease pressure on stocks,” he said.
The PPI analyst, Diego Mendez, told iProUP that, despite the favorable announcement from the monetary authority, Wall Street was surprised to learn the data of employment of the first month of 2023.
According to the expert, the creation of 517.000 Job positions, which caused the unemployment rate to rise to 3.4% (its historical minimum) Despite the increase in participation 62.4%, it was not good news.
“The presence of such a strong labor market, with almost all vacancies among the unemployed, can lead to higher wages and, consequently, higher prices,” he explains.
In that sense, Mendez suspends the rhythm of rrecovery of international actions. “Investors are starting to value higher rates.
That leaves room for a increase of more than a quarter of a percentage point,” he said.
Furthermore, he points out that “these fears were reinforced when Jerome Powell, president of the Fed, did not rule out the possibility of repeating the more aggressive stance of 2022. This recovery, then, would be threatened by a possible recession that would lead the main indicators to mark in red for the second consecutive year.”
For its part, Brian Arce, analyst investments by Liebre Capital, told iProUP that 2023 began with a strong stock rise of growth, to the point that the Nasdaq Composite index jumped 10% in January.
So it points out that savers are waiting for the Fed relax and are speculating about it.
CEDEAR: Which sectors will be most profitable with the Fed's policy?
Mazza points out that the sectors most sensitive to interest are those related to technology. “Innovation companies do not generate positive cash income, but consume it in near-recession situations. For this they need a loan. And this is often done at a high opportunity cost. a notable improvement in these functions,” he anticipates.
From the PPI assure that in a scenario in which the Fed relaxes its policy monetary for a long time, the main world economy will show signs of weakness until become an inevitable crisis.
Thus, the number of elements decreases “beneficiaries” and keeps up with his counterpart in the innovation industry.
“If demand from technology companies is not affected, you can imagine that is fine. Most likely, we believe that the least cyclical, or even countercyclical, companies will reap the greatest benefits,” says the trader.
The specialist of Capital Hare points out that it is a very optimistic scenario and that, if the rise in risk assets, the segment technological could emerge as a leader in profitability after suffering a hard blow in 2022.
CEDEAR: What to include in portfolios?
To take advantage of this context, Mazza He points out that he likes the names of two technology companies:
- PayPal (PYPL): for the successful restructuring of financial management a year ago
- Amazon (AMZN): Why did you stop focusing on marketing in favor of great offers technological? Maintain a stable level of income.
In addition to the category of technology, the PPI recommends the inclusion in the stock portfolio of renowned companies with a strong presence in the respective sectors.
So Coca-Cola (KO), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Pfizer (FPF), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), ExxonMobil (XOM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (I chose CEDEAR from PG). Communications of Verizon (VZ).
Thus, by dollarizing your portfolio, you not only protect yourself from “Argentine risk”, but you also earn an extra dividend of around 3.4%.
Arce recognizes that his focus is on companies like Coca Cola (KO) and 3M (MMM), which until now they have been undervalued.
“The largest soft drink company will report results this week and we've already seen strong results from soft drink companies like McDonald's (MCD), PepsiCo (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), Unilever (UL) and others including Walt Disney . (DIS)”, says the general director.
He adds that the industrial goods sales giant achieved the results expected in the last period of 2022” and highlights a additional benefit: “These companies give us a annual dividend yield of 3% and 5%, respectively.”
Ultimately, the specialists agree that the opportunities that arise after the Fed's moderation may be accompanied by positioning in companies with a strong capacity to generate sales that allow them to distribute profits among their investors.